Victoria's coronavirus crisis, the lack of a solid lead from the US after markets were closed on Friday and a Reserve Bank meeting on Tuesday points to a "challenging start" to the week, says a finance expert.
CommSec senior economist Ryan Felsman says following the Independence Day holiday in the US, the next best lead-in for Monday's opening comes from Europe where key Australian mining stocks took minor hits.
He said banks, resources and the mining sector were down in Europe on Friday with Rio Tinto down 1.9 per cent and BHP 1.6 down per cent in London trade.
The Stoxx Europe 600 was down 0.8 per cent and the UK FTSE was down 1.3 per cent and that suggests the ASX will open 35 points lower on Monday.
"The European share markets fell on Friday as investors worried that a leap in US COVID-19 cases could soften the global economic recovery," Mr Felsman told AAP.
"It's going to be a challenging start to the week, certainly for investors."
He said Victoria, where nine housing commission blocks were placed in lockdown amid fears of a massive outbreak, as well as the rising US cases, would place further pressure on Australian stocks.
"With a combination of the rising cases in the US and also our own flare-up in Victoria will certainly dampen sentiment," Mr Felsman said.
"There's no question that people will be looking at that thinking whether that really slows down the reopening of the economy."
He said Australian dollar held tight between 69.24 and 69.47 and traded around 69.37 at the close on Friday while the Reserve Bank is unlikely to move on interest rates when it meets on Tuesday.
However, any commentary from the Reserve Bank may have a marginal impact on share prices.
"We don't expect the Reserve Bank to say too much apart from maybe commentary around the need for more fiscal policy support from the government and also the Aussie dollar being a bit stronger than they hoped," he said.
Australian Associated Press